How Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 could change the obesity drug market

Big news for those watching the GLP-1 race: A new pill just dropped.

The FDA has approved Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1, Foundayo (orforglipron), the company announced April 1. Free home delivery is available on its direct-to-consumer platform LillyDirect, with prescriptions starting at $25 per month with commercial coverage and $149 for self-pay. Pill shipments will start April 6, per the announcement.

“This is obesity care designed for the real world,” David Ricks, Eli Lilly’s CEO and chair, said in a release.

This pill comes after years of demand for an oral version of the previously injectable-only treatment, and three months after Novo Nordisk beat Lilly to the punch and launched oral Wegovy, the first FDA-approved oral GLP-1, with a self-pay price also starting at $149 a month through August 31.

A potential pro for Lilly’s pill is that it has no food or water-related restrictions. Novo’s oral Wegovy should be taken upon waking with an empty stomach and patients should wait 30 minutes before eating or drinking, per Wegovy’s website.

“I think it’s a really exciting medication. I think the trial data is very impressive. The ability to take it at any time of day, without consideration for food or fluid intake, makes it easier to take than the Wegovy pill,” Adam Wolfberg, chief medical officer at Virta Health, a company focused on reversing metabolic disease, told Healthcare Brew.

Novo seemed to clap back on Thursday with a study that indirectly compared the two pills and found oral Wegovy is associated with more weight loss than Foundayo, as well as a survey where 65% of respondents said the restrictions on eating and drinking wouldn’t disrupt their daily lives.

Word on the Street. Novo’s pill has already seen over 600,000 prescriptions, spokesperson Liz Skrbkova told Healthcare Brew. And uptake has been about 10x higher than the original Wegovy, David Moore, president of Novo Nordisk US, said in a March 26 earnings call.

JPMorgan analysts wrote in an April 1 note that Lilly’s Foundayo likely won’t be adopted as quickly. Novo benefited from being first to market and from immediate name recognition because its pill has the same brand name as the injectable.

Though Lilly is late to the party, the demand for GLP-1 pills combined with Foundayo’s advantages means it could have what it takes to become “the market leading oral, especially internationally,” the JPMorgan note predicts.

Brokerages estimate Foundayo will see sales of anywhere from $1.5 billion to $2.8 ‌billion this year, Reuters reported.

“When the oral Wegovy hit the market, it was a rapid success. Patients really appreciated the oral alternative—and honestly, this one looks better,” Wolfberg said.