Pfizer, Novo Nordisk bidding war is just the latest escalation of a lucrative GLP-1 race

GLP-1s are a cash cow for the drug industry, with profits rising higher than ever imagined.

Despite concerns over affordability and side effects, in May, analysts at Morgan Stanley Research predicted the global obesity drug market could peak at $150 in 2035, up from the firm’s previous forecast of $105 billion.

Drug companies are scrambling for the biggest piece of that profitable pie. Whether it be looking into how to create oral versions of these injectable drugs or battling to acquire other drugmakers—cough, cough, Pfizer and Novo Nordisk—they’re all racing to stay ahead of the competition.

“We are literally just scratching the surface of global [obesity] treatment here,” Chair and CEO of Eli Lilly David Ricks said in an Oct. 30 earnings call. “There really is a tremendous opportunity to reach tens or even hundreds of millions of more people in the coming years, and that’s our goal.”

Winners, losers. Eli Lilly is arguably winning the GLP-1 game right now.

Sales of its GLP-1s Mounjaro and Zepbound bumped Q3 2025 revenue 54% YoY to $17.6 billion, the company shared on Oct. 30.

It also has another obesity drug moving to late-stage clinical trials, eloralintide, with promising data that “further builds on [Lilly’s] leadership position” in the obesity and Type 2 diabetes market, according to a Nov. 6 JP Morgan analyst note.

Lilly upped its full-year earnings guidance on Oct. 30 to between $63 billion and $63.5 billion—higher than last quarter’s guidance of $60 billion to $62 billion. The pharma company’s stock jumped over 3% that day.

Ozempic and Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk, however, is struggling with decreased sales amid competition with Lilly and compounders like Hims & Hers.

The Danish biotech shared in a Nov. 5 earnings call its Q3 2025 net profit fell 27% YoY to $3.1 billion, after which its stock fell more than 2%.

Change is on the horizon, though. Novo is in “active discussions” to partner with Hims & Hers in selling its GLP-1 offerings, the direct-to-consumer online company said in a Nov. 3 release.

Novo ended a previous deal with the company in June, claiming at the time that Hims & Hers “failed to adhere to the law” by continuing to sell compounded versions of its branded drugs.

Next moves. The next push in this space seems to be making the drugs more user-friendly.

So far, Novo is furthest ahead in developing an obesity pill. The company recently presented data from a successful Phase 3 trial, per a Nov. 5 press release.

Meanwhile, obesity drug biotech Metsera, founded in April 2022, is developing new GLP-1 injectables that can be taken once a month instead of once a week and seem to have fewer side effects than other options.

For Novo, Metsera could be a stepping stone back to the top. Pfizer, meanwhile, could use Metsera as its golden ticket into the lucrative GLP-1 game.

Pfizer has pulled out all the stops. It was the first to enter a deal to acquire Metsera in September. But then Novo made a higher unsolicited offer, launching a bidding war.

Pfizer has since filed two lawsuits to block Novo’s acquisition. CEO Albert Bourla dismissed Novo’s offer as an “illegal attempt by a foreign company” to “cut and kill an emerging competitor,” during the company’s Nov. 4 earnings call. The FTC also raised concerns about a potential Novo acquisition on Tuesday.

The only clear winner in this battle right now? Metsera. 

The squabble is upping Metsera’s stock, which jumped 22.1% after Novo offered $6 billion in cash on Oct. 30, coming in over Pfizer’s initial $4.9 billion. Novo is now up to $10 billion—and Pfizer has matched it, the Financial Times reported Nov. 5.

Affording the future. Another aspect of GLP-1s that companies appear to want to crack is affordability.

Novo’s drugs were selected early this year for round two of price negotiations created by the Inflation Reduction Act, with yet-to-be-announced discounted prices set to take effect in 2027.

The Trump administration also secured a deal with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to lower the price of their blockbuster weight loss drugs through TrumpRx, the White House announced Nov. 6. Monthly out-of-pocket costs could range from $50 to around $350, depending on a patient’s dosage and coverage.

The drugmakers have also started offering out-of-pocket discounts in partnerships with several retailers. 

On Oct. 3, Novo and Costco announced a partnership to offer Wegovy and Ozempic for $499 per month compared to their respective out-of-pocket list prices of $1,349.02 and $997.58. Novo has given the same deal to Walmart, Sam’s Club, CVS, and drug discount company GoodRx, and it offers the drugs at that price via its direct-to-consumer (DTC) site, NovoCare Pharmacy.

Lilly has also recently partnered with Walmart and, separately, with Amazon Pharmacy last year on its DTC site, LillyDirect, where it offers discounted GLP-1s.